ABSTRACT

Temperature is an important climatologically variable that cause global warming. The strategic location of Ilorin and Lagos calls for examining the variability of monthly air temperature in these cities. Seasonal means model was used to determine the variability of monthly air temperature. The seasonal pattern of the series follows a cosine function with variable amplitude; hence cosine trend model was fitted while least square method was used to estimate the parameters. The fitted models were used to forecast monthly temperature in the two cities. Linear trend model was fitted to Ilorin and Lagos forecast to know the direction of future monthly temperature. Seasonal means model revealed variability in the monthly temperature especially in Ilorin in the month of January where C was recorded and the direction of future monthly temperature was upward, an indication of global warming. Measures for global warming are suggested such as proper town planning and tree planting among others.